Chartis Global Risk Assessments - An oil supply surplus is at risk from geopolitical shocks, especially in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have had a relatively strong start to the year, largely reflecting saber-rattling in the Persian Gulf and an escalation of Islamist militancy in Nigeria. A high political risk premium is expected to keep prices at elevated levels at least in the first quarter of 2012. Later, however, if fears of major supply disruption retreat, fundamentals should reassert themselves and drive prices somewhat lower.